Political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov gave a lecture at ASU titled “World Politics 2025: Impossible to Predict, Let’s Try to Understand”

The open lecture was held at the educational and production base of the Adyghe State University "Mountain Legend", where the Summer School "How a Student Can Become a Mathematics Teacher" and the Summer Methodological University are currently taking place. The event was attended by students from 20 regions of the country, residents and guests of the republic.

Fyodor Aleksandrovich Lukyanov is a Russian international journalist, author and host of the International Review program on the Russia-24 TV channel, editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine, Scientific Director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, research professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, and Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy of Russia.

“ My task at this event is quite difficult, because the participants are not close to the topic of politics, but this only makes the meeting more interesting, we try to understand each other, that is, it is a process of mutual learning: I speak out about my work to those who are not very familiar with it, and in return I receive a response from the listeners, I think this is very important , ” shared Fyodor Lukyanov .

During the lecture, he spoke about the tasks of political forecasting, various approaches to the analysis of international relations, and the influence of time factors and circumstances on the interpretation of similar events in different historical periods.

The task of political forecasting is not an exact prediction of the occurrence of specific events, but the identification of the main alternatives and factors that influence their development. Any forecast is developed with the aim of avoiding an undesirable possible development of events and accelerating such development in the desired direction. This desire is especially acute during dynamic social changes.

- There is a perception now that international affairs have become completely unpredictable, and everything depends on individuals and their moods. On the one hand, this is true, which makes the work of analysts more difficult. But on the other hand, there are basic laws of the state that have not changed for thousands of years. Therefore, no matter what the circumstances are that leave their mark, these interstate relations remain the same as they were in ancient times. Understanding these principles is important in order to be prepared for what is happening in the world and not to be afraid. Everything is quite complicated, but not so scary , - noted Fyodor Lukyanov .

The speaker also paid attention to the role of Russia in the international arena. Our country speaks about the need for a fair world order, in which all states are free to realize their cultural and national characteristics. Without the imposition of standards from outside. And this idea is met with warm approval. In the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, the idea of injustice, which, as they are sure, permeates the entire world system under the leadership of the West, has long been core. According to Fyodor Lukyanov, now it is possible to single out more than twenty states that are significant participants in international relations, influencing the world political agenda.

The speaker added that each historical event has its own causes of origin and further development factors, and the modern world is characterized by a high degree of interconnectedness and interdependence, due to the development of communication technologies. Analysis of individual events and accompanying factors allows us to form an idea of what is happening on the world stage and understand the causes of various events.

The lecture took place after a significant political event – the Russia - US summit in Alaska. Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump held talks at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage. The talks lasted about 2 hours and 45 minutes, after which the leaders held a joint press conference.

- By chance, our meeting took place shortly after the summit in Alaska. At this event, I represent the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and we regularly travel to the regions of the Southern and North Caucasian Federal Districts. It is difficult to say the reason, but our meetings often coincide with important events in the world , - said Fyodor Lukyanov .

Participants of the meeting and representatives of the media of Adygea asked the international journalist to share his vision of the meeting of the two political leaders and to sum up its results.

- An important meeting took place. Relations between Russia and the United States were, in fact, suspended for a long period, but they have now been resumed. So far, they have not moved into a friendly or partnership format, but the very fact of their existence takes place , - the political scientist noted.

During the discussion, participants also asked questions regarding the role of small states in world politics, the reasons for the collapse of the Soviet Union and the current economic and demographic situation in the Russian Federation, and the challenges of achieving technological leadership.

During his visit to Adygea, Fyodor Lukyanov, together with the deputy editor-in-chief of the journal “Russia in Global Affairs”, professor of the National Research University Higher School of Economics Alexander Solovyov, held a political game “Formula of International Relations: Is it possible to derive an algorithm for foreign policy”, in which student participants tested the effectiveness of mathematical algorithms for describing and modeling international relations.